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JANUARY 28,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 10:58 P.M. ET: 

SCRIMMAGE – From Fox:  "Calling the NCAA a dictatorship, Northwestern's quarterback and the United Steelworkers announced plans Tuesday to form the first labor union for college athletes -- the latest salvo in the bruising fight over whether amateur players should be paid.  Quarterback Kain Colter detailed the College Athletes Players Association at a news conference in Chicago, flanked by leaders of Steelworkers union that has agreed to pay legal bills for the effort. The NCAA and the Big Ten Conference both criticized the move and insisted that college athletes cannot be considered employees."  I think the NCAA and Big Ten probably have the better argument, but I'm glad to see them challenged.  The treatment of college athletes is an entirely proper issue, and long ignored by members of the media, who consider athletes beneath them.

SOCHI UPDATE – From CBS:  "DETROIT – As the Feb. 7 start date of the Winter Olympics draws closer, concerns about potential terrorist attacks targeting the event in Sochi, Russia, have not abated.  According to BBC, Whitehall officials (the British equivalent of White House officials) have called terrorist attacks before or during the Olympics 'very likely.'...While NHL players have expressed excitement about the experience of representing their country and competing against the world’s best, the league has not ruled out the possibility of keeping its players stateside.  'As of now, we do not doubt that all necessary steps are being taken by the Sochi Organizing Committee, the Russian government and the IOC to ensure the safety of the athletes and guests in Sochi,' NHL deputy commissioner Bill Daly told The Associated Press. 'Obviously, if something significant were to transpire between now and February 9 that causes us to question that conclusion, we will re-evaluate. I don’t expect that that will become necessary.'"  We watch the bulletins on Sochi.  We'll keep you informed

INCREDIBLE – From The Politico:  "Cancer-stricken Sen. Tom Coburn revealed Tuesday that his health insurance under Obamacare doesn’t cover his oncologist, but said he still is receiving excellent care.
'I’m doing well from a health standpoint, got great docs,' Coburn said on MSNBC’s 'Morning Joe' on Tuesday when asked about his health. 'Fortunately — even though my new coverage won’t cover my specialist — I’m going to have great care, and I have a great prognosis.'  The Oklahoma Republican’s spokesman confirmed to POLITICO that since the senator enrolled in his health insurance plan under Obamacare, his coverage has been reduced and he lost coverage for his cancer specialist. Coburn will continue to pay out of pocket and see his oncologist, his office said."  A fine man, Senator Coburn.  But what happens to people who can't afford to pay a specialist? 

SPEECH – The president delivered his State of the Union address earlier tonight.  I am trying to find someone who still remembers it, and will report back to you.  The president wore a nice suit.

January 28, 2014       Permalink

DID YOU KNOW? – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:   Some high-level Republicans have put forward a health-care plan to replace Obamacare.  You didn't know?  Well, maybe if you go to page 46 of your local liberal paper you'll find it there, near obituaries.  But it's a solid plan that deserves the attention it won't get.  From Fox: 

Seizing on the public's continued anxiety over the ObamaCare rollout, a trio of Republican senators on Monday unveiled a sweeping alternative proposal they say would gut the law's mandates and taxes while preserving consumer protections.

Sens. Orrin Hatch, of Utah; Tom Coburn, of Oklahoma; and Richard Burr, of North Carolina, announced their plan one day before President Obama delivers his State of the Union address. It is his first such address since the launch of the state and federal health care exchanges.

The GOP proposal, dubbed the Patient Choice, Affordability, Responsibility and Empowerment Act, would repeal the president's marquee legislative achievement while instituting new reforms the senators say would give states and individuals more flexibility and purchasing power.

"Americans deserve a real alternative, and a way out," Coburn said.

Under the plan, insurances companies would not be able to impose lifetime limits on patients and would be required to allow dependent coverage up to the age of 26, as ObamaCare currently does. The Republican proposal would address the issue of pre-existing conditions by creating a new "continuous coverage" standard that would prevent any individual moving from one insurance plan to another from being denied on the basis of a pre-existing condition so long as that individual was continuously enrolled in a health plan.

The requirements on individuals to buy insurance, and on mid-sized and large businesses to provide it, would be repealed.

Senate aides describing the proposal acknowledged there's little chance of movement in the current Congress, where Democrats control the Senate and have resisted all Republican-led House attempts to repeal or chip away at ObamaCare. Still, the aides said they hope continued public dissatisfaction with the way the law is being implemented might shore up the efforts of Hatch, Coburn and Burr. A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows that while negative perceptions of the new exchanges have eased, 66 percent of Americans say the rollout is not going well.

"The American people have found out what is in ObamaCare -- broken promises in the form of increased health care costs, costly mandates and government bureaucracy," Burr, a North Carolina Republican, said in a statement. "We can lower costs and expand access to quality coverage and care by empowering individuals and their families to make their own health care decisions, rather than empowering the government to make those decisions for them."

And...

Their proposal calls for the targeted use of tax credits to help individuals buy health care. Employees who work for a small business with 100 or fewer employees would be able to receive a credit while those whose annual income is 300 percent of the federal poverty level could receive an age-adjusted refundable tax credit to buy health coverage. Small businesses would also be allowed to band together and purchase insurance, even across state lines.

COMMENT:  Republicans must do more than hold one press conference.  If they believe in this plan, it should become part of their national platform.  They should print the proposal, promote it wherever they can, ask for endorsements, start a major campaign.  Republicans have to learn to shout, not just discuss. 

Obviously, we'll need more details, and the plan will undoubtedly go through changes.  But make this into a big deal.  And, fellas, involve some women.  Three white guys sitting at a table is so 1856. 

A good, solid, attractive, Republican health plan could swing the 2014 midterm elections.  A little show biz wouldn't hurt.  Ronald Reagan once said he couldn't understand how anyone without acting training could be president.  Listen to him.

January 28, 2014       Permalink

WHAT?  YOU MEAN THERE'S CHEATING GOING ON? – AT 9:52 A.M. ET:  We make international agreements, then we tend to forget them, assuming they're working. 

Remember how we almost went to war against Syria last year after we discovered the regime had used chemical weapons?  War was avoided when the peace-loving Russians held Obama's hand and guided him to an agreement with the Syrians to end the crisis and end the Syrian chemical program.  All going well with Syria, ay?  Not so fast, buddy.  From The Times of Israel: 

Syria is accelerating its production of missiles and rockets, effectively circumventing international sanctions imposed on it, according to the authoritative Jane’s Defence Weekly.

The magazine, which deals with military and security matters, presented evidence that the regime has upgraded its weapons capacity with the assistance of countries including Iran, North Korea and Belarus.

Jane’s reported that the Syria Scientific Studies and Research Center is responsible for the production of chemical weapons in Syria and oversees most of the regime’s missile projects. Yet according to the magazine, officials in the international community, including the UN, Russia and the United States, do not supervise the operations of the research center and have not imposed specific sanctions on it.

Jane’s added that although Syria has begun the process of destroying its chemical weapons arsenal, the SSRC still possesses the requisite knowledge to produce a host of warheads containing deadly chemical elements, including sarin, VX and Yperite.

The report reveals that the Assad regime has gone back to producing missiles and medium- to long-range rockets at a rate similar to that prior to the start of the country’s brutal civil war in March 2011. The two main reasons for the regime’s enhanced weapons production are an increased need for missiles in order to combat opposing rebel forces, and Hezbollah’s desire to acquire rockets and missiles stationed on Syrian soil.

COMMENT:  Looks like they're having us for lunch...again.  And why not?  These rogue regimes have learned one of the classic lessons of international diplomacy – when your opponent is weak, exploit that weakness.  America, through the design of the most leftist administration in its history, is weak.  It is getting weaker.  Syria saw us cave in after we were preparing to strike.  Iran saw us cave in and sign a weak agreement on nuclear weapons with the Tehran government.  North Korea saw us constantly weak as we threatened dire consequences if that country developed an atomic bomb.  It went ahead and developed it.  Nothing happened to North Korea.

And our allies see us weak.  Some, in the Mideast, are starting to get cozy with Iran, as we deliver the big chill.

January 28, 2014       Permalink

THE GENERIC MEASURE – AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  As the president prepares to deliver his State of the Union message – by being sure the teleprompter is plugged in – a new poll shows Republicans with a slight advantage in this year's generic congressional ballot.  From Fox:

At the start of the midterm election year, Republican candidates hold a slim two-percentage point advantage when voters are asked about their preference for Congress.

Forty-three percent of voters would back the Republican in their House district if the election were held today, while 41 percent would vote for the Democratic candidate, according to the latest Fox News poll.

Click here to read the poll results.

The difference comes from independent voters, who lean toward the Republican candidate over the Democrat by 32-26 percent. Many independents, however, are undecided (28 percent) or would vote for a non-major party candidate (14 percent). Just one voter in five (20 percent) describes themselves as an independent in the poll.

Large majorities of Democrats (84 percent) and Republicans (84 percent) would support their party’s respective candidate.

Views on the generic party vote have shifted back-and-forth in recent months. In October, 45 percent of voters backed the Democratic candidate and 37 percent the Republican. In December it was tied at 43 percent each.

COMMENT:  Given the mess the country is in, and the fact that this is the sixth year of a failed Democratic presidency, you'd think Republicans would be further ahead.  The fact that they're not should serve as a warning.  We cannot win simply by depending on the other side to make mistakes.  We have to have a winning program of our own, carried by attractive candidates.

Also, the Democratic Party is now based on a group mentality that is very hard to break.   Many Democrats continue to support Obama not because he's actually helped the nation, but because of who he is.  They will support him to the bitter end.

And...we still have no reliable way to measure the impact of press bias, which is as present today as it was when the press massively aided Barack Obama in 2008. 

This should be an easy year for Republicans.  It will not be.  Get ready for a food fight.  And remember, Hillary waits in the wings, and her press claque will be circling around her, which means, among other things, advancing the interests of her party.

January 28, 2014       Permalink

THE NEW SPORTS NORMAL – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  This is the way we now must prepare for sports events, even in America.  From Fox:

NEW JERSEY (MYFOXNY.COM) - Super Bowl XLVIII has been declared a level one national security event. Part of that security is to examine every item that is being brought in for Sunday's big game.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents will work around the clock to X-ray every delivery truck and any other vehicle authorized to enter the MetLife Stadium complex for anything suspicious.

Agents will be looking for smugglers, narcotics, terror activity, and more potential threats.

Throughout Super Bowl week, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security will use HCV Mobile Scanning trucks to examine vehicles.

Inside the HCV mobile unit, agents will monitor computer screens to scan anything and everything commercial vehicles will bring in.

"We are xraying every piece of equipment, every cargo, every beverage, seat cushion, every piece of merchandise, food...everything that is going in the stadium has to be x-rayed before it goes in," Kevin McCabe, Chief of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency says.

The giant machine is what is called a "high energy" x-ray unit.

After the trucks are approved, they get a police escort to the loading docks over at the stadium.

The FBI also gave Fox 5 a behind-the-scenes tour of its joint operations and surveillance center in Newark.

"We are looking at all of the information and see if it has an effect on any event related to the Super Bowl," Aaron Ford, FBI special agent says.

COMMENT:  And Times Square is getting extra surveillance equipment as well.  Some security experts warn that a terror attack during a major event may not necessarily occur at or even near the event itself.  It may occur somewhere else, miles away, but designed to take TV coverage off the event.

Super Bowl this Sunday.  Olympics next week.  Cops very busy.

January 28,  2014     Permalink

JANUARY 27,  2014

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 9:32 P.M. ET:

RUSSIAN ECONOMICS – From AP:  "SOCHI, Russia — Russian opposition leader and anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny on Monday launched a website to publish a wide range of data pointing to corruption in Sochi.  Russia has spent about $51 billion to deliver the Winter Olympics in Sochi, which run Feb. 7-23, making them the most expensive Olympics ever.  In comparison, the AP reported in 2001 that the Salt Lake City Olympics would cost nearly $2 billion."  Obama will probably ask Putin, "How did you do it so cheaply?"

SO SORRY M'LADY – CNN has gushed apologies to Hillary Clinton after an editing mishap:  From the Washington Examiner:  "A CNN anchor quickly apologized for airing a video clip of Hillary Clinton expressing regret for the Benghazi terrorist attacks spliced together with video of the former secretary of state laughing while she was asked about her plans in 2016.  After playing the clip, CNN anchor Ashleigh Banfield apologized to viewers, realizing that it looked like Clinton was laughing about the terrorist attack."  Ever see a CNN apology to Sarah Palin?  George W. Bush? 

EMBARRASSMENT – From The Politico:  "Retired Republican Sen. John Warner endorsed his Democratic successor and onetime rival Mark Warner on Monday in his race against Ed Gillespie.  The 86-year-old told POLITICO that the state benefits from the seniority in the Senate that the 59-year-old Warner (the two are not related) is accumulating. The former chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee also praised the younger Warner – with whom he has developed a friendship since the two squared off in a race nearly two decades ago – for effectively advocating on behalf of the state’s large military presence."  Some people never know when to get off the stage.  John Warner has just made his party's task of taking the Senate even harder.  Nice knowin' you, John. 

SILLY – From CBS:  "VERONA, N.Y. — The Oneida Indian leader from upstate New York who has become a high-profile critic of the Washington Redskins’ nickname is taking his case to the United Nations.
The Oneida Indian Nation says Ray Halbritter will meet Friday with the Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights at U.N. headquarters in Manhattan. Halbritter argues that the Washington team’s nickname is racially insensitive and should be changed."  No matter where you stand on this, going to the UN is ridiculous.  The UN is to human rights as tear gas is to lungs.

January 27,  2014     Permalink

A RISK FOR US – AT 9:34 A.M. ET:  This deals with the Mideast, but the risk for us may be just as great.  From TIME: 

The downing of an Egyptian military helicopter in the Sinai region of the country by Islamist militants apparently using, for the first time, a surface-to-air missile, represents a significant intensification of the violence there — and has implications beyond the troubled Sinai.

If the militants have more surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) they could endanger commercial airliners landing and taking off many times a day at Eilat, the Israeli resort city that sits on the tiny sliver of the Red Sea coast inside Israel. The flight approach to the Eilat airport comes uncomfortably close to Sinai foothills on the Egyptian side of the border. Ground-to-ground missiles are sometimes fired from the Sinai toward Eilat, including a couple of Grad rockets seven days ago.

COMMENT:  This is not a local issue.  It's a worldwide problem.  We know that a number of shoulder-launched SAMs went missing during the Libyan revolution.  They are available as international contraband, and have shown up repeatedly in Africa.  They could easily be manufactured in a rogue state and given to terror groups. 

A successful attack on an airliner taking off from or landing at a major airport would have a catastrophic effect on aviation.  Remember that we closed down our airline system for several days after 9-11. 

The SAM problem is remarkably hard to solve.  These weapons can be broken down into small packages, and they are easy to use.  They can be sent across borders in parts.  There are anti-missile systems that can be installed on airliners, but they are hugely expensive, and I don't think many (if any) aircraft have them now.

This is a problem that will be announced with a headline.

January 27, 2014       Permalink

SOCHI UPDATE – AT 9:14 A.M. ET:   A former deputy CIA director weighs in on terror warnings.  From The Hill: 

Former CIA Deputy Director Mike Morrell said Monday the upcoming Sochi Olympics are “the most dangerous” he’s experienced.

“I think these are the most dangerous Olympics I’ve experienced in my adult life,” Morrell said on “CBS This Morning.” Morrell works as a contributor for the network. Morrell resigned from the CIA last June, and had served as deputy director since 2010. He served as acting director twice.

Host Charlie Rose asked Morrell why Americans should be just as concerned.

“You have a capable, dedicated, determined terrorist group that has been around for a long time, that recently conducted two attacks in Russia, who say that they want to attack during the games,” he said.

Russian authorities have been working to bolster security in Sochi since two consecutive suicide bombings killed civilians in Volgograd last month. The city is located about 400 miles from Sochi and 500 miles from Moscow.

Morrell said Sochi itself is “fairly safe,” but warned that a venue outside could be vulnerable during the Olympics.

“I’d worry about airports elsewhere in Russia, I’d worry about Western hotels elsewhere in Russia, that’s where I’d put my focus.”

The State Department last week updated its travel alert for Americans planning to attend the Sochi games since terrorist threats have become pronounced. Rose asked Morrell what advice he’d give to Americans who will still go.

“I would go. I would take my family. I would be very careful. I would be very aware of my surroundings,” he said. “If somebody put a package down or a backpack down, I’d walk away from it as fast as I could. I’d also inform security personnel. I’d also watch people’s behavior.”

COMMENT:  Not too encouraging.  I'm not so sure I'd want my family around if there are strange-looking guys with packages.  Better to stay home and watch "Downton Abbey."

January 27, 2014       Permalink

DEMOCRACY AT RISK – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:   We are seeing so many frightening stories of conservatives assaulted by their own government, and others in positions of power, with virtually no concerns expressed by the "watchdogs" of the press.  Look at this list, from PJ Media:

1. IRS Targets Conservative groups - IRS auditor reaffirms that conservatives, not liberals, were targeted

2. IRS Scandal – FBI Closes Case - Obama FBI Closed Case on IRS Targeting Scandal Before Interviewing Single One of 292 Targeted Groups (Video)

3. IRS Harassed Sarah Palin’s Dad - Revealed: Obama’s IRS Harassed Sarah Palin’s Dad Six Times Since 2008

4. Federal Court Indicts Director of Anti-Obama Film – It Begins… Director of Anti-Obama Film “2016: Obama’s America” Indicted by Federal Court

5. New York Governor’s Dept of Labor Subpoenas James O’Keefe, Project Veritas - NY Governor Cuomo Subpoenas Conservative Activist James O’Keefe

6. IRS Harasses Secret Hollywood Conservative Group – Demands List of Members

7. Latina Actress Fired After Appearing in Ad for Tea Party Candidate (Video)

8. Silencing the Tea Party With New IRS Rules

9. IRS Targets Veterans, Demands Private Records Of American Legion

10. VIDEO>>> Chuck Schumer Calls on IRS to Target Tea Party Activities

11. Obama Blames FOX News, Rush Limbaugh for His Failures …(Too Much Free Speech)

12. NYC Mayor De Blasio Agrees With Cuomo: Conservatives Need to Get Out (Audio)

This is starting to make Nixon look like a walk in the park…

COMMENT:  We've said before that Obama combines the smallness of Jimmy Carter with the deviousness of Richard Nixon.  But no one is stopping him.

January 27, 2014       Permalink

THE SENATE TASK AHEAD – AT 8:28 A.M. ET:  Writing in today's Washington Post, a political scientist uses mathematical modeling to claim that the Dems have only the barest edge in trying to keep control of the U.S. Senate this year:

Based on the 60 years of Senate races from 1952 to 2012, current presidential approval and current economic growth, we estimate that the Democrats have only a 56 percent chance of retaining a Senate majority. That is to say, in 56 percent of the simulations from our model, Democrats won 16 or more seats out of the 36 currently up for election, or enough to give them the majority. This forecast is in line with others, perhaps most notably from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball, whose terminology — “coin flip” — corresponds closely to the 56 percent to 44 percent split in our simulations.

Uh...

But this forecast might actually be too rosy for Democrats. One question that confronts all forecasters and analysts is whether new trends make it misleading to rely on history — as we’re doing by basing our forecast on 1952-2012. Of course, it’s typically valuable to have more data rather than less. But are Senate elections in the current era similar enough to those 50 or 60 years ago to use those earlier elections in a 2014 forecast?

In some respects, Senate elections in more recent years are different. If we compare elections from 1952-78 to those from 1980-2012, two differences stand out, and neither work to Democrats’ advantage. First, the midterm “penalty” for the president’s party is larger in the more recent period. Second, the relationship between presidential approval and Senate elections is stronger in the more recent period, which could hurt Democrats in 2014 given that President Obama is more unpopular than popular.

If we produce a midterm forecast solely based on Senate elections from 1980 to 2012, the forecast is much more favorable to Republicans: They now have a 64 percent chance of taking the Senate. And an incumbent such as Pryor is in more trouble. The model based on these recent elections gives him a 60 percent chance of winning — much closer to a pure toss-up race.

COMMENT:  Another prediction to put in the hopper, but at least based on some actual research.  What I'm seeing is that we have a good shot to take the Senate, but that it will be very difficult.  One thing the researchers can't measure, for example, is the finger on the scale represented by a biased press. 

Another thing not measurable is the quality of candidates, and this is an area where Republicans commit regular political suicide.  The Senate was lost to us in 2010 and 2012 by the nomination of candidates who blew races that could have been easily won.  We have to do better.

January 27,  2014     Permalink